In late March, the British Navy held a keel laying ceremony for the first ship of the new generation of strategic nuclear submarine "Fearless", at the Barrow Inverness Shipyard, Cumbria, England. British Prime Minister Stamer and Defense Secretary Healy attended the ceremony together, marking a key step in building a new generation of nuclear deterrent forces in the UK.

  Conspicuous design indicators

  With the development of modular shipbuilding technology, laying keels is no longer a necessary step in the construction of submarines and most modern warships, but this ceremony has been preserved as a symbolic tradition. For the "Dreadnought" nuclear submarine, which has been built in a modular manner for nearly 10 years, this marks the entry of its various cabin sections into the final assembly stage. As the UK's future strategic nuclear deterrence platform, four fearless-class nuclear submarines are expected to be put into service one by one in the 1930s, replacing the active avant-class nuclear submarines one-on-one to ensure that the UK's nuclear deterrence capabilities continue until the 2060s.

  According to the design indicators, the Fearless Class will be the largest submarine built in history in the UK and even Europe (except Russia). It has a total length of 153.6 meters and an underwater displacement of about 17,200 tons, a slight increase from the Avant-garde Class (about 16,000 tons). The power system is developed by Rolls Reyce and improved on the basis of the pressurized water reactor of the Virginia-class attack nuclear submarine in the United States. It has better safety and longer life. It is expected to operate continuously for 20 years without the need for fuel replacement. The boat is powered by turbine power, uses a pump jet propulsion system and an X-shaped tail rudder. It has an underwater speed of more than 28 knots. The noise of high-speed navigation has dropped to the "lowest level in history", and its silent and stealth performance is about 40% higher than that of the avant-garde level.

  In terms of sensor systems, this type of boat uses the 2076 integrated sonar system of the French Thales Group, combined with the side array sonar, and the detection radius can cover about 100 nautical miles (about 185 kilometers) around the perimeter. The electronic warfare mast can integrate optical surveillance, satellite communication and electronic countermeasure functions, thus forming a comprehensive battlefield perception capability. In terms of strike capabilities, it will still be equipped with the US-made "Trident II D5" submarine-launched ballistic missile. However, the number of missile launch tubes has been reduced from 16 avant-class to 12 (3 groups of 4 units combined), increasing the living area and improving the living environment and crew comfort in the boat. This type of boat is expected to be equipped with a new "Asteria" nuclear warhead of about 450,000 tons of equivalents, and it will be technology-shared with the W93 nuclear warheads planned to be carried by the Colombia-class strategic nuclear submarine under construction in the United States.

  Old boats need to be replaced

  The Fearless Class nuclear submarine project is one of the most important defense construction projects in the UK in recent years, with a total cost of about £43 billion (about £52.5 billion, excluding nuclear warhead renewal costs), and has invested more than £10 billion so far. In 2012, BAE Systems Company officially started the design of this class of boats. In 2016, the first boat "Dreadnought" cut the first steel plate and entered the substantive construction stage. The construction of the No. 2 "Warrior" and the No. 3 "War War" have started one after another, and the No. 4 "King George VI" has not yet officially started. According to reports, the project will drive the comprehensive upgrade of the UK's defense industrial chain, and is expected to create about 30,000 jobs and benefit about 1,500 suppliers.

  The British military has high hopes for the fearless-class nuclear submarine that is still in its infancy. The current situation of the British nuclear submarine force can be summarized as "not many in number and poor in good condition." The 4 strategic nuclear submarines are the lower limit required to maintain nuclear deterrence. In order to ensure combat readiness, they can only take turns to work: 1 cruise on duty, 1 port standby, 1 maintenance, and 1 combat power recovery. This means that once an unplanned failure occurs in a submarine, it will cause other submarines to extend their duty time, thereby increasing the probability of failure and aging speed, and then falling into a vicious cycle. The British army has four avant-garde nuclear submarines in service, and the shortest service time has reached 25 years. According to the designed service life, they should be ready to enter the retirement procedure. However, the new boat has not been in place for a long time, and the old boat can only delay its "retirement" and even have to "work overtime". This is an important reason for the frequent failures and even accidents of the Avant-class in recent years.

  The design indicators for continuous cruise time of avant-garde nuclear submarines shall not exceed 90 days. However, in 2022, the two Avant-garde classes set a record of 157 days of super long continuous cruise. In September 2023, this record was set to 195 days. On March 21 this year, British Prime Minister Stamer inspected the "Avant-garde" which had just finished his 204-day cruise, and met with the crew and his family accompanied by Defense Secretary Healy. This is the first time that the British Prime Minister has inspected a top-secret nuclear submarine in more than a decade. Commentary believes that the visit took place on the eve of Starmer's meeting to assist Ukraine's "Will Alliance" and was connected with the keel laying of the first ship of the Fearless Class, reflecting the British government's eagerness to demonstrate its nuclear deterrence strength in the face of an increasingly tense regional and international situation, and its urgent need for the renewal and iteration of strategic nuclear submarines.

  The prospect is hard to say

  At present, the British Navy has listed the development of the Fearless Class nuclear submarine as the highest priority mission. In this regard, public opinion is generally cautious, believing that the project is difficult to get rid of multiple troubles.

  First, financial support is weak. On February 25, Starmer announced that this Labor government will launch the UK's largest military expenditure growth plan since the end of the Cold War, and by 2027, the proportion of military expenditure to GDP will increase from the current 2.3% to 2.5%. However, in order to increase military expenditure, the British government will reduce the proportion of development aid expenditure to GDP from 0.5% to 0.3% in 2027. This move of "demolition of the east and the west walls" reflects the poor financial situation in the UK and the large variables in military expenditure. Commentators believe that if the UK invests limited funds in the construction of new submarines, it is likely to affect the expenditure on the normal operation of active ships.

  Second, the R&D potential is doubtful. The UK currently uses the tertiary industries such as the financial industry and service industry as its main economic pillars. The proportion of industry continues to decline, and military production capacity is gradually shrinking. Comparing the British music industry and the shipbuilding industry, it can be found that the live concert (concert) in 2023 has driven 62,000 jobs, and the shipbuilding industry has brought only 42,600 jobs. There is a shortage of skilled workers and new jobs are unwilling to enter factories. The long-term shortage of orders in the shipbuilding industry, which barely survives, makes it difficult for the UK to get out of the vicious circle of "drag (construction period) - increase (expense) - decrease (performance quality)" for weapons research and development.

  Third, the staff gap is large. The British people are not enthusiastic about joining the army. Currently, the total number of British Navy and Marine Corps is less than 38,000. Insufficient personnel, the British army had to retire some warships. Many key positions have few successors, and even if new boats are in service, it is difficult to equip enough qualified crew members in the short term. The British army also faces problems such as low personnel quality, especially the nuclear submarine forces often expose scandals such as misconduct and poor management.

[Editor in charge: Gao Qiang]