What should the ideal humanoid robot do?

Take over repetitive labor (such as factory assembly line), solve life trivial matters (such as sweeping the floor and cooking), and finally entertainment performances.

But reality is slim : Currently, robots that cost hundreds of thousands of yuan per machine are not as efficient as robotic arms, and sweeping the floor is not as good as sweepers of 3,000 yuan.

The cost-effectiveness is so low that capitalists shake their heads, and the bottleneck is stuck "deadly".

Optimus robot cost

Optimus robot cost

Why is it difficult to land a humanoid robot?

The three restrictions are scattered:

Technical Bottleneck : The existing algorithms make robots jump to "Swan Lake", but they can't face complex environments such as " oil stains on the ground and obstacles on the head ".

Cost black hole : The average price of domestic whole machines is hundreds of thousands, and training a sorting robot requires tens of thousands of times to capture data, and the single cost exceeds 1,000 yuan.

Scenario tear : Industrial scenes think it is not efficient, family scenes think it is sky-high, and robots of various brands are like humans in different dialects and cannot cooperate well.

Don't rush to sing

Looking back at the history of technology, all disruptive innovations have gone through the " toy stage ":

Steam engine : Watt's improved version in 1769 had less than 5% thermal efficiency, and the fuel cost was higher than manpower. It was not widely used until 80 years later - but the "first need scenario" of coal mine pumping allowed it to survive.

Computers : During World War II, it was only used for military ballistic calculations, and it occupied the entire room in size. Who would have thought that it would be stuffed into a mobile phone later?

Electric vehicles : In the 1980s, they could only transport on golf courses, but now they can make fuel vehicles "shiver".

The dawn has appeared

A specific scenario is breaking the ice:

In GAC factory, humanoid robots began to sort parts;

In nursing homes, they assist in drug delivery to monitor signs;

The price of domestic joint motors in Jiangsu Leili is 30% lower than that of imported products;

Changying Precision’s precision parts began to be delivered in small batches.

When the cost of a stand-alone machine is reduced from one million to less than 100,000 yuan, the Walker S1 robot that performs quality inspection in the factory suddenly has a cost-effectiveness.

The future is a "first need scenario"

Investment banks predict that the humanoid robot market will reach trillions of levels, but don’t be fooled by numbers;

The key is who first tries to get rid of the "coal mine water pumping" level.

Medical care, hazardous environmental operations, and precision manufacturing assistance are the beachheads for technological breakthroughs.

Just like computers are moving from the military to thousands of households, the path of humanoid robots is already clear: first be a special forces soldier, then a nanny, and finally an internet celebrity.

As for time? Referring to the 80 years of steam engines, perhaps our generation can get it.