The website of the Royal Institute of Elcano, Spain published an article on May 14, titled "Can Europe's military aid to Ukraine fill the gap in the United States? 》, author is Pablo del Amo, a foreign policy researcher at the Royal Institute of Elcano. Compiled as follows:

  Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian War, Washington has played an important role in helping Ukraine fight back Russia. The U.S. aid includes not only providing weapons systems that have proven to be very effective on the battlefield, but also intelligence support. Without the support of the United States, Ukraine's military status relative to Russia will be greatly weakened. To what extent can Europe replace US military aid to Ukraine?

  For most of the Ukrainian War, the United States has been the main force in Kiev's military aid. Later, with the development of European industry, especially the Republican obstructing Congress' approval of new military aid programs to Ukraine, the importance of the United States providing military aid to some extent reduced. Data from the German Kiel Institute shows that the United States has provided Ukraine with aid worth $114.2 billion, while the amount of aid in Europe has also increased to $132.3 billion.

  US-made weapons are "critical"

  Some of the weapons systems provided by the United States have become key elements of Ukrainian military defense and offensive operations. The first is the "Jaberlin" anti-tank missile system. The United States began to export this anti-tank missile system to Ukraine during Trump's first term and accelerated transportation speeds on the eve of the 2022 conflict. The Ukrainian army's use of this system not only caused significant losses to the Russian army, but also disrupted Russia's plan to launch a blitzkrieg attack on Kiev.

  The second thing worth noting is the high-mobility rocket launcher system ("Haimas"). The system was put into the battlefield in the summer of 2022 and played a decisive role in undermining Russian logistics and destroying targets such as ammunition depots or command centers. In this sense, ending the delivery of a guided multi-barrel rocket launcher system will make the Russian army more free to move dozens of kilometers behind the front line.

  As the conflict reached a deadlock, mobile warfare gave way to the war of attrition, and artillery became the main weapon of Ukraine. It turns out that the US-equipped M777 howitzers are not only essential weapons during stalemate and positional warfare, but also in offensive and defensive operations.

  Washington provides Kiev with the Patriot air defense system. The system has proven to be very effective in intercepting Russian drone and missile strikes since spring 2023. Not all missile interception systems owned by Ukrainians can do this.

  Washington not only plays a decisive role in arms delivery, but also in the logistics that Europe is highly dependent on, but most importantly in space surveillance or intelligence and information collection capabilities. The U.S. intelligence capabilities enable Ukraine to understand the strategic posture of the war by providing information about Russian actions or intentions. In other words, the United States provided Kiev with an in-depth understanding of the battlefield and a range of advantages that allowed the Ukrainian army to last for three years.

  The combat power of the alternative system is doubtful

  European countries have sufficient capacity to arm Ukraine. There are a variety of systems available in Europe, but it is important to the number and speed of delivery of weapons systems it can provide to the Ukrainian army. Improving the defense industrial base and its production capacity is a necessary condition to make up for the gap in the United States. In this regard, Europe is in a more advantageous position than ever in terms of artillery production. Therefore, artillery systems and ammunition belong to the easiest range of replacement.

  In addition, it is worth mentioning that Ukraine itself has its own capabilities in developing drone production. The massive use of drones has become an increasingly common feature of the Ukrainian army, with drones accounting for 60% to 70% of the casualties caused to Russians.

  Regarding the substitutability of the Javelin anti-tank missile system, Ukraine not only has millions of drones that have been proven to effectively strike Russian combat vehicles, but Europe also has the next-generation light anti-tank weapon (NLAW) systems designed by the UK and Sweden to choose from. NLAW is lighter, but it's only one-third of the range of similar products in the United States.

  It will be even more difficult for Europe to replace the "Haimas". Europe has French multi-barrel rocket system LRU and German MARS II rocket launcher system that can replace "Haimas", but their maneuverability is not as good as "Haimas" and is slower, so it is easier to become targets of attack.

  As mentioned earlier, Europe has many alternatives to the U.S. system, but the problem is that not all European weapons systems have the same quality and lethality as the U.S. For example, according to a report by the German Federal Wehrmacht, many of the "large" weapons supplied to Ukraine are not "suitable for combat." The report noted that the Ukrainian army used a large number of equipment considered "outdated" but more suitable for combat environments, such as "Leopard" tanks and "Weasel" infantry fighting vehicles. In other words, even if Europe has alternatives to the American system, whether they are more effective than the American system is a variable.

  European Intelligence Support Limited

  In the field of intelligence, one of the main limitations of Europe is evident. Despite the strong intelligence capabilities of some member states, Europe as a whole cannot completely replace the United States.

  The United Kingdom is a country with the ability to provide intelligence and data processing support to Ukraine. However, like France, UK resources are not as good as the United States in terms of coverage, scale and capacity. Nevertheless, they can help Kiev develop some early warning capabilities against Russian drone and missile attacks and provide limited support for its long-range operations within Russia.

  In this sense, due to the complexity of developing intelligence and reconnaissance systems, Europe may find it most difficult to fill the gap in intelligence capabilities in the United States. In other words, European countries will have to design and develop new technologies and pay for them. The time span of this replacement may take at least 5 to 10 years.

  One of the most complex issues in replacing the United States is the exercise of command and the development of strategies. For decades, Washington has been the main creator of strategic coherence among allies, and without Washington, it would be difficult to replicate the strategic coherence among allies. Europe not only needs new capabilities, investments and technologies, but also trained personnel to act and think in an independent way.

  U.S. aid is crucial to Ukraine. The suspension of such assistance, especially the suspension of intelligence, logistics and command and control support, would deal a heavy blow to Ukraine. European countries cannot replace these capabilities in the short term, or even in the medium term. Therefore, it is reasonable for both Europe and Ukraine to prevent the United States from withdrawing from the conflict as its strategic goal. (Translated by Wang Meng)

[Editor in charge: Wang Jinzhi]