On April 8, the Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics issued the 2024 statistical communiqué. The communiqué showed that at the end of 2024, Yunnan's permanent population was 46.55 million, with an annual birth population of 402,000, with a birth rate of 8.62‰; the death toll was 394,000, with a mortality rate of 8.45‰; and the natural growth rate was 0.17‰. This adds another province with a natural positive population growth.

Up to now, 28 provinces have issued the 2024 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin, which shows that 9 provinces have maintained natural positive population growth. In addition, Xinjiang, Guangdong and Qinghai account for the highest proportion of population under the age of 60, and can be said to be China's "youngest province".

The population of 9 provinces is naturally positive

The national population began to grow negatively in 2022, and since then, the low fertility rate and aging have continued to aggravate, and the number of provinces entering the stage of natural negative population growth has gradually increased. However, according to the statistical communiqués of these 28 provinces, there are still 9 provinces that maintain natural positive population growth in 2024.

These nine provinces are Xinjiang, Guangdong, Qinghai, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Beijing, Fujian and Tibet. Its distribution also has obvious characteristics. There are 6 provinces in the west, namely Xinjiang and Qinghai in the northwest, Yunnan, Guizhou, Tibet and Guangxi in the southwest; 2 coastal provinces in the east, namely Guangdong and Fujian; and the capital Beijing.

Specifically, in 2024, the natural population growth rates of Xinjiang, Guangdong, Qinghai, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Beijing, Fujian and Tibet were 3.37‰, 3.69‰, 2.70‰, 0.17‰, 3.00‰, 0.88‰, 0.01%, 0.24‰ and 8.43‰, respectively, Tibet was the highest, and Guangdong and Xinjiang ranked second and third respectively.

Against the backdrop of negative population growth in the country, why can these provinces still maintain positive growth?

For the western region, the reason why the population is mostly positively growing in the population may be that ethnic minorities gather, the tendency to be less childbirth is relatively low, and the overall fertility rate is high; Guangdong and Fujian in the southeast coastal areas have a strong awareness of paying attention to fertility, and as economically developed regions, these provinces continue to attract a large inflow of young people.

The high birth rate of the population is the key to the natural positive population growth. Except for Beijing and Fujian, the population birth rate in the other seven provinces is above 8‰. In 2024, the population birth rates of Xinjiang, Guangdong, Qinghai, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Beijing, Fujian and Tibet were 9.42‰, 8.89‰, 10.11‰, 8.62‰, 10.74‰, 8.37‰, 6.09‰, 6.95‰ and 13.87‰, respectively.

Among them, the population birth rates in Tibet, Guizhou and Qinghai all exceeded 10‰, which can be said to be the "most procreated province" in the country.

However, the population bases of Tibet and Qinghai are relatively small, and the absolute number of births is not large. In comparison, with relatively high birth rates, Yunnan and Guizhou, a large population in the western region, have a large population. In 2024, the permanent population of Guizhou and Yunnan will be 38.6 million and 46.55 million, respectively, with 415,000 and 402,000 births respectively.

From a national perspective, Guangdong has the largest number of births in the case of a large population and a high birth rate. At the end of 2024, Guangdong's permanent population was 127.8 million, an increase of 740,000 from the end of last year. The annual birth rate was 1.13 million, with a birth rate of 8.89‰; the death rate was 660,000, with a mortality rate of 5.20‰; the natural increase of 470,000, with a natural growth rate of 3.69‰.

Who is the youngest province in China?

While maintaining a high birth rate, these provinces with naturally positive population growth have also become China's "youngest provinces". Among them, the proportion of the population under the age of 60 in Xinjiang, Guangdong and Qinghai is 86.3%, 85.14% and 84.5% of the total population, ranking among the top three among these 28 provinces.

In addition, the proportion of people under the age of 60 in Hainan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Jiangxi also reached 82.54%, 82.08%, 82%, 80.43% and 80.28% respectively, all exceeding 80%. This is equivalent to more than 4 out of every 5 people still being "young people", which is much younger than many provinces where every 4 people have 1 over 60 years old.

From the perspective of specific age structure, in 2024, the population aged 0-15 in Xinjiang accounted for 20.7%, and the population aged 16-59 years old accounted for 65.60%; the population aged 0-15 years old accounted for 18.76%, and the population aged 16-59 years old accounted for 66.38%; the population aged 0-15 years old accounted for 20.70%, and the population aged 16-59 years old accounted for 63.80%.

Due to the large population base of Guangdong, Xinjiang and Qinghai are relatively small. In 2024, the permanent population of Xinjiang, Guangdong and Qinghai will be 26.228 million, 127.8 million and 5.93 million respectively. With the high proportion of young people, it can be said that Guangdong is the province with the largest number of young people in China.

The economic development has attracted a large number of young and strong labor inflows and the population of their own maintains natural positive growth, making Guangdong's population structure continue to be young. In 2024, Guangdong's permanent population increased by 740,000, and the birth population was 1.133 million, ranking first in the country. Since 2007, Guangdong has been ranked first in the population for 18 consecutive years, and has become the only province with a birth population of more than 1 million for five consecutive years.

If we look at the age level of young people, Guizhou is ranked among the province with the highest proportion of people under the age of 16. In 2024, Guizhou's population aged 0 to 15 accounted for 23.60%. In addition, the proportion of the population aged 0 to 15 in Guangxi, Henan, Xinjiang and Qinghai exceeds 20%, namely 22.32%, 21.20%, 20.70% and 20.70% respectively.

From this distribution, provinces with a high proportion of population under the age of 16 mainly come from central and western provinces, and are also mainly labor export provinces.

In terms of the proportion of the working population, economically developed regions account for the largest proportion. In 2024, Guangdong, Xinjiang, Zhejiang and Beijing ranked in the top four in the population aged 16 to 59, 66.38%, 65.60%, 64.50% and 64.50% respectively. In addition, the proportion of the population aged 16 to 64 in Jiangsu is 68.29%. It can be said that the working population is mainly concentrated in developed eastern regions.