During today's Asian trading session, the US dollar index continued to decline, falling to 99.34 points during the session, hitting a new low since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022. Behind this trend is the dramatic "face change" of the Trump administration's electronic product tariff policy over the weekend. First, it announced exemptions to some products, and then denied "exceptions" through social media, and hinted that a new round of "national security tariff investigations" would be launched. The capricious shock wave of policies is pushing the US dollar to the center of the trust crisis in the global capital market.

This policy swing exposes the inherent contradictions in Trump's tariff economics: on the one hand, it tries to avoid the political risks caused by soaring prices on the consumer side through exemptions, and on the other hand, it tries to maintain his "hard" character. George Salavelos, director of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that this strategy of "being both to hit opponents and fearing hurting itself" is accelerating international investors' re-evaluation of the logic of the US dollar pricing.

Policy uncertainty has triggered a chain reaction:

The US dollar index broke down: starting from the high of 110.18 on January 13, the cumulative decline of the US dollar index exceeded 10%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, known as the "anchored of global asset pricing", reached 4.488%, a surge of more than 12% in a single week, setting the largest single-week increase in more than 20 years.

Reconstruction of safe-haven assets: The Swiss franc soared to a high in 2015 against the US dollar, the yen rose to the 142 range, and gold broke through US$3,180 per ounce, with the three gains reaching 12%, 9% and 20% respectively this year.

Zain Wafda, an analyst at the online forex trading platform Anda, said investors are adjusting their asset allocation at a "wartime speed" to move from the US dollar to a more neutral safe-haven asset, a liquidity migration that never appeared after the end of the Cold War.

There is no doubt that the recent continued decline of the US dollar is quite unusual, and in the past, global financial pressures have usually made the dollar stronger because investors will rush to buy dollar assets, such as U.S. Treasury bonds seen as safe havens. But last week, the US dollar and US bonds suffered a massive sell-off at the same time. A deal that will "sell American assets" may be in the works.

The Trump administration's "economic war" strategy with tariffs as a weapon may not only fail to achieve its claimed "manufacturing return" or "trade rebalancing", but will instead become a fatal blow to shake the foundation of the dollar's hegemony.

The arbitrary, repetitive and unpredictable Trump's tariff policy completely overturns the market's trust logic in US dollar assets. The deeper crisis is that the US dollar, as a credit anchor for "safety assets", has been destroyed by policy weaponization. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that if the trade war continues, the global reserve share of the US dollar may fall below 50% in 2025, the lowest since the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system.

Trump tried to reshape "America's greatness" with tariffs, but himself ignited the systemic risk of US dollar hegemony. When policymakers weaponize monetary policy and arbitrary rules, the market will eventually respond with capital flight and trust collapse. History may record: the spring of 2025 is not only the starting point for the collapse of the US dollar's "throne", but also the watershed of the transition from unipolar to multipolar.

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