The global market experienced valuable calm on Monday, and the US Treasury bonds, which were sold in large numbers last week, finally successfully "stopped the bleeding". US Treasury Secretary Besent, who was interviewed by Bloomberg in 19 minutes, was regarded by some traders as the "savior" of US debt. He denied speculation that foreign countries are selling US debt, saying that the decline is mainly the product of deleveraging.

Bescenter stressed that the US government is stabilizing yields by adjusting the pace of Treasury bond issuance and guiding market expectations. Its strategy has begun to show results, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling from a high of 4.5% to 4.3%, and the US dollar index has temporarily stabilized at the 100 mark. However, the characterization of this "technical adjustment" forms a subtle confrontation with the deeper structural anxiety in the market.

Besent deliberately avoided the deeper issue of trust. The US's "change of orders every day" tariff policy has made the international community lose trust in it, and the security of US Treasury bonds has also been widely questioned. With the long-term international reserve currency status of the US dollar, the United States has wielded the "big stick" of tariffs, disrupting the global trade order and making countries full of concerns about holding US assets. Trump's tariff policy is like a "time bomb" that may detonate at any time, keeping market participants alert at all times. This crisis of trust cannot be resolved overnight.

Calm appearance: liquidity alarm is suspended, but trust cracks are hard to break

The brief calm in the market on Monday obscured three unresolved crises:

1. The credit foundation of US dollar assets is shaken

US bonds, US stocks and US dollar have rarely seen a "three-kill" situation at the same time, exposing the market's doubts about the stability of the US dollar system. Although Becente denied the sale of foreign capital, data shows that Japanese institutions placed $20 billion in selling orders in a single day, and German government bonds became a new safe-haven target against the trend. This "voting with feet" reflects the repricing of the attributes of US bonds by global capital.

2. "Chronic Toxicity" of Policy Uncertainty

The Trump administration's capricious tariff strategy is still hanging high like the sword of Damocles. Although Becente is trying to rebuild confidence, the market is more worried about the conflict between its "3-3-3 policy" (3% deficit ratio, 3% GDP growth, 3 million barrels of oil per day) and the trade war. Tariffs push up inflation may force the Federal Reserve to delay interest cuts, thereby increasing the debt interest burden.

3. The shadow of liquidity trap

Although the current US dollar liquidity indicator has not deteriorated significantly, and Becente's team hopes to optimize the debt structure based on the "centennial zero-interest bond replacement plan", if more hedge funds are forced to close their positions due to insufficient margin, a new round of liquidity stampede may be triggered.

The White House has undergone "changes in power sorting"

Becente quickly became the public spokesperson for the decision after the Trump administration suddenly changed its stance and suspended the implementation of dozens of broad "peer" tariffs. According to the BBC, some trade policy experts pointed out that Becente's central role in the tariff announcement clearly reflects the "change in power sorting" within the White House, which has brought the United States back from the brink of a comprehensive global trade war. It was Becente who played a key role in frequent calls with business leaders, especially on the weekend before the decision-making, and in the Oval Office meeting on the morning of April 9 that convinced Trump.

Becente expressed reservations about tariffs early in his career, and observers believe these views, combined with his long experience in the bond market, ultimately allowed him to gain the upper hand in the debate, overwhelming trade adviser Navarro and Commerce Secretary Lutnik, both of which represent a tough stance on tariffs.

Becente's strategy is essentially a "time game", which strives for a window for fiscal reform through short-term market intervention. The current market respite is just like the calm before the storm. If the yield on US Treasury exceeds 4.5% again, it may trigger the asset redistribution threshold of pension funds and insurance companies. By then, Becent's "deleveraging theory" will face real test. This battle for the definition of crisis is not only a battle of economic logic, but also an ultimate stress test of the vitality of the dollar's hegemony.

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