After the market briefly reached a temporary high, the Shanghai Composite Index has been hovering around 3,400 points for about 20 trading days. During this period, the technology sector has staged a rotation market, and sectors such as artificial intelligence and robotics have performed well, but there has not been a general rise in a long time, and some sub-sectors have even retreated slightly.

At this point in time, fund managers have different views on the future of technology. Some believe that the "bubble" has already appeared, and we need to pay attention to the sub-sectors within the technology sector, or the dividend sector with lower valuations; some fund companies believe that the technology stocks with artificial intelligence as the core will be the main line of the market, and the short-term fluctuations in technology stocks will not change the continuous positive trend.

Technology stocks briefly stalled

A fund manager in North China reminded a reporter from Securities China of the risks and said that in the short term, the equity market, especially the growth-oriented technology sectors, showed signs of bubble. Short-term adjustments are necessary and the extent of the adjustments will determine the depth of subsequent participation.

In addition, the Hang Seng Technology Index, which has been rising continuously, has also experienced a pullback recently. A fund manager in South China believes that there are two points to remind about Hang Seng Technology at present: First, there will inevitably be a need for a correction after a rapid rise. "Hang Seng Technology has always been a highly volatile asset. Behind this round of rise, we have not seen the continued realization of the performance of listed companies. Except for a small number of companies, most Hong Kong-listed companies have not yet released their performance. In fact, we do not expect the impact of DeepSeek to be reflected in the performance of Q4 last year, but the guidance given by the management at the performance meeting is very important. In the future, there may be a difference between market expectations and actual business progress. This has actually occurred in the past two years in the process of the performance of US AI targets."

On the other hand, the Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend strategy has performed poorly since the beginning of the year, and the market seesaw trend is quite significant. The aforementioned fund manager believes that this is mainly related to the fact that US Treasury yields have always been high.

Looking back at the recent market trends, AI narrative logic has dominated the market fluctuations, and TMT transactions continue to account for about 40-50% of A-share transactions. A fund manager in charge of fixed income products told a reporter from Securities China: The market is so divided that companies with AI hardware and related applications are given PS of more than 10 times; but other traditional companies, so-called "legacy of the previous era", are given extremely harsh and cheap valuation levels.

"However, not all growth creates value. If a company cannot form its own moat in various ways during its development, then the ultimate outcome will be that its value will be destroyed through fierce commercial competition. We are deeply skeptical about how many of the AI ​​targets currently being favored by the market can truly grow with a moat."

The aforementioned fund manager once doubted himself: "Is not participating in AI at all a 'wake-up call' for the long-term outcome, or is it 'arrogance' that he does not respect the market? The answer to this question can only be answered by subsequent verification. But a strong enough reason not to participate is not to take risks with clients' money. This 'risk' refers to irreversible drawdowns in the long run."

High “cost-effective” sector emerges

Judging from the market conditions, the short-term market has given a very extreme interpretation to technology stocks, and some funds have been withdrawn from other sectors. A fund manager in East China told a reporter from Securities China: "We believe that the valuation increase of technology stocks comes from the overall improvement of China's manufacturing and technology industries. We can remain optimistic about the technology manufacturing industry, but we must pay attention to the valuation and implementation capabilities of the sub-sectors. The narrative of the technology industry changes very quickly, and overly popular places may generate overly high expectations. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to pan-new quality productivity and look for links that can be implemented and have high cost-effective valuations."

Tianhong Fund believes that at this point in time when the technology sector is extremely hot, some funds that need to take profits will begin to look for industries or assets with solid fundamentals and valuations that are still in the middle and low levels. "From this perspective, we are still firmly bullish on non-ferrous metals and remain optimistic in the long term." In addition, at this point in time, we can be appropriately optimistic about the food and beverage sector. The reasons for optimism are that the current valuation is relatively reasonable; second, domestic economic policies are gradually being introduced, and the effects may gradually emerge, driving market sentiment; third, consumption, as an important component of the economy, may have more policy stimulus, and the huge domestic consumer market also has development potential.

The aforementioned South China Fund Manager said that after the index composition adjustment at the beginning of the month, the current dividend rate of the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index has returned to around 7.2%, and the corresponding after-tax dividend rate is close to 6%, which is still quite attractive. Compared with the relatively high-priced A-share dividend assets, the valuation of Hong Kong stock dividend assets is still at a discount, and the dividend rate is relatively more attractive. In addition, the holdings of the Hong Kong stock high dividend strategy have gathered a large number of low-valuation targets with Chinese characters, which are also the core assets of the market.

Artificial intelligence may be a long-term positive

Huaxia Fund said that the global economy is currently undergoing a reshaping of order under the US tariff stick. The sudden rise of Chinese science and technology has allowed the world to see China's development potential. A series of domestic manufacturing such as humanoid robots, large models, and smart cars have rewritten the perception of domestic and foreign capital on the valuation of Chinese science and technology. This year's two sessions mentioned the acceleration of the development of "artificial intelligence +", which is also an important step in the transformation of my country's economy.

"Even if the turbulent market in spring undergoes short-term adjustments or the TMT sector undergoes adjustments due to overheated sentiment, it does not mean the end of this round of technology stock market. In the medium and long term, artificial intelligence will still be the industrial development trend in the next few years. It will promote China's industrial transformation and upgrading and accelerate technological innovation. Therefore, from the perspective of the whole year or even longer, the technology stock market with artificial intelligence as the core will be the main line of the market. The short-term volatility adjustment of technology stocks will not change the continuous positive trend." Hua Xia Fund believes.

Meng Xia, manager of Harvest Manufacturing Upgrade Fund, said that the industry is still in its early stages of development and short-term fluctuations are unavoidable. We need to be mentally prepared to deal with fluctuations and objectively examine investment opportunities based on long-termism. In the face of market uncertainty, we need to remain calm and rational, avoid emotional decisions, and pay attention to the impact of changes in technology iteration routes, changes in market liquidity, and major industry events on the industry chain and individual stocks.

Meng Xia pointed out that investors need to be wary of short-term overheating risks and examine technological evolution on a ten-year scale. Just as cars replaced horse-drawn carriages a hundred years ago, humanoid robots may redefine the "infrastructure" of the next era. At the same time, considering the high growth and high volatility of the intelligent robot sector, investors are advised to invest in the long term.