After the Trump administration came to power, the United States' attitude towards the World Trade Organization (WTO) has caused many speculations.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the WTO recently stated that the US's membership fees arrears of WTO are currently in the first category of arrears, and the organization has formulated plans to ensure that it maintains daily operations.

At the same time, some lawmakers in the US Congress are calling on the United States to withdraw from the WTO. In response, WTO Director-General Ivira said at a press conference on the 16th local time that the US side told us (WTO) and to various members that they would send an ambassador to the WTO. "It is still one of their best ambassadors, and it is still to be confirmed by the US Congress."

Previously, the Trump administration had nominated former U.S. Trade Representative Officer (USTR) Joseph Barloon as the chief representative of the U.S. to the WTO, but as Ivera said, his official appointment is subject to confirmation by the U.S. Congress.

Recently, many economic and trade scholars and international relations experts interviewed by First Financial reporters believe that although the tariff policies introduced by the US to the world have violated the principle of most-favored-nation treatment, the US will not withdraw from the WTO, otherwise it will become passive.

Source: Xinhua News Agency

Source: Xinhua News Agency

Why there are rumors of the United States withdrawing from the WTO

Ivera said that some recent proposals from the U.S. Congress (which allowed the U.S. to withdraw from the WTO) "is not new."

"Everyone here knows that the US Congress will vote on whether the United States should stay in the WTO once every five years. This phenomenon has been around for decades, and it is now this year."

The 1994 Uruguay Round Agreement Act does leave a "backdoor" for the United States to withdraw from the WTO, and the law was passed by the U.S. Congress in 1994 to implement the Uruguay Round Agreement.

In short, every five years, the United States will review the Uruguay Round Agreement Act. There is a provision in the Uruguay Round Agreement Act that requires the U.S. Trade Representative to submit a report on the U.S. participation in the WTO every five years. After the report is submitted, U.S. Congress members can submit a resolution to withdraw from the WTO within 90 days. The resolution has privileges, which means its proposers can vote on it 45 days after it is submitted. And 2025 is such a year, with constant noise in the US Congress.

Recently, Rep. Tom Tiffany, a Republican Congressman of Wisconsin, proposed a joint motion calling on the United States to withdraw from the WTO, calling it a "loopy globalist institution."

"The U.S. trade policy should be formulated by U.S. officials elected by U.S. voters and held accountable to U.S. workers, not by non-elected international bureaucrats in Geneva," Tiffany said.

Historically, in 2000 and 2005, the two members of the United States have proposed a bill to withdraw from the WTO. One is an extremely conservative, former Republican Congressman Ron Paul, and the other is an extremely liberal, former Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, and both have run for the US president separately.

The U.S. House of Representatives rejected the U.S. withdrawal from the WTO with an absolute majority. However, from 2000 to 2005, the House of Representatives' support for withdrawal increased from 56 to 86.

Subsequently, due to the fact that the United States formed some consensus on the WTO, in 2010 and 2015, no lawmaker proposed a similar bill to the United States withdraw from the WTO. In 2020, as the Trump administration's criticism of the WTO became stronger, some attempts have also occurred in the United States, but none of them have been considered.

At the same time, compared with the fact that he had criticized the WTO in his previous term, U.S. President Trump has not publicly accused the WTO.

Zhu Jiejin, professor of the Department of International Politics, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, said in a recent interview with the First Financial reporter that the United States is dissatisfied with the WTO system, but there is no room for the United States to transform.

He said that during Trump's previous term, the reason why the United States did not withdraw directly was just threatening to withdraw and paralyzed the appeals body under the dispute settlement mechanism was that it would be difficult for the United States to come up with an alternative to the WTO in the short term.

The United States wants to send an ambassador to the WTO

Ivera said this time, let's wait and see what will happen, "But I don't see any signs of (withdrawal) at the moment. They told us that they want to send one of the best ambassadors. I hope that after Congress confirms his appointment, I will share the news with you."

At present, there has been no news that Baron will accept a hearing on Congress.

Baron is an "old acquaintance" in the international trade law circle. He served as the general counsel of the US USTR during Trump's first term and was later promoted to Deputy Representative of the USTR. He currently works at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom.

During his time at USTR, he led U.S. law enforcement actions against China, India, France and many other countries, and litigated on behalf of the United States at the WTO. He has also been responsible for the adoption and implementation of several trade agreements, including the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. From 2020 to 2021, during his tenure as USTR Deputy, he was responsible for international trade affairs involving China and the United States.

Zhu Jiejin reminded that although Trump will not withdraw from the group, he can "transfer the group", that is, shift his focus to another group, so that the so-called large group will be undermined.

In reality, although it does not withdraw, the United States is now in arrears of fees in the WTO.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the US delegation said at a WTO meeting on the 4th of this month that it will suspend payment of WTO's annual membership fees for 2024 and 2025 before the US reviews the payment of membership fees for various international organizations.

According to WTO data, the annual budget of the WTO in 2024 is 205 million Swiss francs (approximately US$232.06 million), which is charged proportional to the US's share of global trade, and the US should pay about 11% of the fees.

According to reports, according to a WTO document marked "RESTRICTED" dated February 21, the United States' dues arrears were 22.7 million Swiss francs (about 25.7 million US dollars) as of the end of December 2024.

Zhang Lei, director of the World Trade Organization Research Center of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, told the First Financial reporter that it should be "not arrears for threatening any negotiations." At the same time, if the United States really wants to withdraw from the WTO, it also requires a resolution of the Republican and Democratic Party of the United States and will not withdraw soon. Therefore, the current situation is to "drag" and wait for domestic instructions in the United States.

Earlier, a U.S. State Department spokesman said that U.S. President Trump signed an executive order last month instructing Secretary Rubio to review all international organizations that the U.S. has joined within 180 days.