Affected by tariff policies, global stock markets have experienced huge fluctuations, and both developed markets such as the US stock market and Japan, as well as emerging markets such as Vietnam and India, have experienced declines to varying degrees. A-shares also surged and fell in the meantime, led by high dividend assets such as liquor and electricity, and the Shanghai Composite Index even turned red for a while.

Affected by relevant news, many assets including gold, bonds and stock market have been revaluated. Regarding A-shares, some fund managers believe that they can pay attention to industries related to pure domestic demand and are more defensive. For example, food, beverage, real estate, social services, etc. are less affected by tariffs, and they may benefit from subsequent domestic fiscal and monetary policies. Secondly, interest rates are expected to decline, and the high dividend sector (utilities, highways and railways, etc.) is expected to benefit in the phased period.

The value of gold and bonds is highlighted

As the stock market is shaking, the role of gold safe-haven aversion to frequently breaking through historical highs has become increasingly prominent. On April 3, as soon as the tariff policy news came out, the global asset market began to fall sharply simultaneously, risk aversion sentiment heated up sharply, and spot gold prices hit a record high of US$3,200 per ounce.

Liu Tingyu of Yongying Fund believes that looking back, if there is no more room for actual reconciliation in the comprehensive reciprocity tariff policy, all countries will take countermeasures, and they will be in a highly volatile and hedging stage, and gold will directly benefit as a safe-haven asset that hedges uncertainty.

Secondly, comprehensive tariffs will push up the US inflation level in the long run, and the US economy may be in a stagflation environment for a long time, and the anti-inflation attributes of gold will be reflected.

Finally, the uncertainty of Trump's policy will increase distrust of other countries in the US market, the US dollar's credit loss and the US dollar weakens, and the long-term funds of central banks in various countries may be more firm in increasing their holdings of gold in the future, which will be related to the gradual decrease of US assets (US dollar, US bonds). Investors in the traditional real interest rate framework will also return gold assets.

Minsheng Jiayin Fund believes that for the bond market, the core obstacle to the current downward trend is whether the central bank will continue to tighten its currency or control long-term bonds. "At present, the tariff shock has led to a downward shift in risk appetite, and the impact on the economy will gradually be reflected. For the bond market, fundamentals are still the main logic, and the central bank also has to face the rebalancing of multiple goals. The strategy can maintain a high duration and consider taking profits at an appropriate position. If you want to slightly increase the duration or switch to a bond, the current interest rate gap between 30 and 10 years is less than 20BP, which is slightly less attractive and the 10-year price ratio is slightly better."

High dividends may be more resistant to declines

On April 3, the A-share index fluctuated throughout the day, but the Shanghai Composite Index closed red during the session, with high dividend concepts such as liquor, electricity, and real estate leading the rise.

Qiao Peitao, manager of Founder Fubon Fund, believes that the reciprocal tariffs imposed on China exceed market expectations and have an impact on China's economy. We must also pay attention to the hedging efforts of domestic policies in the future. Considering the economic goals for 2025 set at the Two Sessions, subsequent fiscal and monetary policies will increase their stimulus efforts.

Qiao Peitao believes that Trump's tariff imposition has an impact on the global economy, and China's export imposition is significantly higher, and China's exports face greater uncertainty. When the domestic demand policy has not been clarified, the market is temporarily biased towards defense, so the market index faces adjustment pressure in stages.

"But we can pay attention to structural opportunities. We choose the intersection that is less impacted by tariffs and may benefit from the strength of fiscal and monetary policies. We can pay attention to industries related to pure domestic demand and are more defensive. For example, food and beverage, real estate, social services, etc. are less impacted by tariffs, and potentially benefit the subsequent domestic fiscal and monetary policies. Secondly, interest rates are expected to decline, and high dividend sectors (utilities, highways, railways, etc.) are expected to benefit in stages. Technology-related elastic sectors need to wait for risk appetite to stabilize, and the current time point is facing greater uncertainty." Qiao Peitao said.

Liu Tingyu of Yongying Fund believes that as gold prices continue to rise, gold mining companies' balance sheets have been completely repaired, and the dividend amount has increased year by year. The gold stock valuation system is expected to shift from the traditional cyclical stock logic to the dividend growth stock logic. Even if the gold price fluctuates at a high level, gold mining companies can still achieve profit growth with high ROE and output growth, and convert them into abundant cash flow and shareholder returns.

"From the perspective of market style, after experiencing the Spring Festival turmoil, as April initially enters the performance disclosure period, the market will pay more attention to corporate fundamentals and performance, and the market style may be tangentially defensive. Under the current market style with downward risk preferences, gold stocks are expected to attract allocated funds that pursue performance certainty, and gold stocks may usher in a systematic valuation increase in the future." Liu Tingyu said.

Small and medium-sized markets are even more "injured"

So, what impact will high tariffs have on Vietnam, which is more dependent on the US market? On the first trading day after Trump announced the tariff policy, major indexes in Vietnam closed sharply, with the MSCI Vietnam index falling 7.44% on April 3 and falling 1.53% the next day.

As of the end of last year, the amount invested in Vietnam was as high as 4.499 billion yuan, ranking fourth in all QDII fund investment areas. "Exceeded expectations, very much beyond expectations." Hu Chao, a Tianhong Fund, said on a social platform that he imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam, which was almost only lower than that of Cambodia. The impact on the financial market in the short term is negative. Whether it is the United States, Japan or other Southeast Asian countries, the sharp drop is basically unavoidable. After a big drop, it will be differentiated, and the logic of each country will be different. On the United States, what is worried about the countermeasures of major powers, the potentially rising inflation, the rising costs of multinational companies with global layout, etc. Vietnam, what is worried about how to meet the needs of the United States and how to revitalize domestic economic vitality to hedge external risks.

In addition to emerging markets, developed countries are also unable to escape the plunge. The Nikkei 225 index fell 2.77% on April 3 and continued to fall 2.75% on the 4th.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said U.S. tariffs could put downward pressure on Japan and the global economy. However, he also said that it is difficult to say how US tariffs will affect Japan's price trends, and will guide appropriate monetary policies from the perspective of sustainable achievement of the 2% inflation target. Bank of Japan Vice Governor Machika Uchida believes that the impact of U.S. tariffs on prices is mixed. If the economy can continue to improve and the base price rises, interest rates will be raised.

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