Under the shock wave of reciprocity tariffs, a wave of selling has begun in the US stock market.

On Friday, U.S. stocks continued to fall, and the three major stock indexes opened with a sharp drop. Among them, the Nasdaq fell by more than 4%, falling below the 16,000 point mark, falling more than 20% from its historical high, and may enter a technical bear market.

With the epic sell-off in the US stock market, private equity funds that have heavy holdings in the US stock market have suffered heavy losses. Among them, the net value of Oriental Harbor Investment, which is in charge of Dan Bin, has dropped sharply this year, and its current floating loss has exceeded 20%. Dan Bin even posted several Moments in the evening to reflect on the operation.

US stocks plummeted continuously

On Friday, US stocks continued to fall at the opening, with the three major stock indexes falling sharply at the opening, and the Panic Index VIX once soared nearly 30%. Data shows that the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 20% from its historical closing high to around 16,000 points, and may enter a technical bear market. The S&P 500 fell 16% from its highest point and fell to a low of around 5118 points.

Among them, the Wande US Big Seven Tech Index fell 3.1% today, and fell more than 22% this year. The total market value of the seven stocks evaporated by US$1.490 billion in two trading days. Among them, Apple suffered the biggest loss, with a market value of more than US$410 billion and a loss of US$3 trillion.

At around 23:00 Beijing time, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rebounded, and then fluctuated and fell, with the market fluctuations very violently.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that potential tariffs may have a sustained impact on inflation and the impact on the economy may be greater than expected. The Federal Reserve is ready for adjustment and the Federal Reserve is obliged to keep inflation expectations stable.

UBS's latest research report pointed out that although market sentiment has fluctuated, the pricing of tariff risks is still "seriously insufficient". Since the stock price has not yet approached the lows associated with this sentiment, this does not provide the same tactical buy signal as in the past.

The report pointed out that even without tariffs, the U.S. economy has shown signs of fatigue. Consumers are showing signs of fatigue, and fiscal stimulus and immigration factors that have played an important role in supporting economic growth in the past 3-4 years have weakened. Earnings forecasts for 2025 have begun to be lowered, with the 13% growth forecast at the beginning of the year now facing the risk of a significant downward trend, which may even be lower than 6%-7%.

UBS believes that both stock profits and valuations face downside risks. Although the productivity improvement brought by AI is good for a long time, tariffs are destructive in the short term, and the uncertainty of related corporate investment and cash flow will also lead to the widening of credit spreads.

The performance lost more than 20% during the year, but Bin spoke out

As the US stock market continues to fall sharply, private equity funds that have heavily invested in US stocks have suffered heavy losses, especially Oriental Harbor Investment, which is headed by Dan Bin, has lost an average of more than 20% this year.

According to data from the Private Equity Ranking Network, the latest net value of Oriental Marathon No. 1, a representative product of Oriental Harbor Investment overseas, was updated on March 31, and has lost 22.11% this year. The scale of the product once reached 470 million yuan at the beginning of the year, and has now dropped to 350 million yuan.

Since Dan Bin adopted a copying strategy for the products, other products with heavy holdings in the US stock market basically had a floating loss of more than 20%, which has not been included in the floating loss caused by the US stock market plunge in the past two days. The performance may be lost to nearly 30% next week.

It is worth noting that Oriental Harbor was the champion of private equity in 10 billion in 2023 and 2024, but this year it ranked last among private equity in 10 billion in this year.

On the evening of April 3, Dan Bin summarized his operations in his circle of friends over the past few months, saying that he had adjusted Nvidia's holdings in 2025, reducing the proportion, but he was still the largest holding company. At the end of February, he chose to sell 70% of his position because he did not agree with Trump's foreign policy such as the Russian-Ukrainian war and was worried that he would cause more regional wars. Only the "big six" except Tesla were retained, each with 5% of its positions and 70% of its cash.

It was originally a perfect timing operation, but Dan Bin quickly bought it again.

"Unfortunately, I am afraid of missing out on the era of artificial intelligence, and thinking about the possibility that a new regional war would be too small, so I quickly bought it again... resulting in a large net value pullback!" Dan Bin said.

Later, Dan Bin said, "Investment is a career full of 'regrets'. We do not make the timing choices, we will only avoid it when encountering 'systemic' risks, but it is unlikely to avoid it every time, bear the consequences and face everything calmly. The non-agricultural data released tonight shows that economic growth is still relatively strong. If the new tariffs are implemented, the US stock market will return to the bull market. And I think that the market will have such a drastic adjustment, once it bottoms out, it will become a new starting point for the next ten years or even a long cycle."

In addition, Dan Bin also said, "In history, such a decline should be a high probability of a historical bottom, but at this time, fear often prevails... For me, this is also the highest challenge in my career!"

It is worth noting that private equity firms such as Jinglin and Hillhouse have also had heavy holdings in US stocks before, and the net value of their products will also decline to a certain extent. However, in March, Jinglin Fund Manager Gao Yuncheng publicly stated that he had removed all the assets of pure American companies in the investment portfolio and turned to Chinese assets, especially Hong Kong stocks.

Hillhouse's HHLR is mostly Chinese stocks. As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, Hillhouse's shareholding market value was US$2.887 billion, a 30% decrease from the end of the third quarter. Hillhouse may believe that the US stock market is at a historical high. In addition to locking in returns, it may also consider controlling risks.

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