Not long ago, Swedish Defense Minister Parr Jonsen announced that it would launch a drone cluster project aimed at enhancing intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities of the ground and air force. It is understood that these drones are equipped with advanced sensors and artificial intelligence analysis systems, which can provide real-time battlefield information and improve commander decision-making efficiency. Russia also recently announced that it plans to set up an unmanned system force this year. The unit uses drones as its main weapon and equipment and is an independent new branch of the Russian army.

  At present, the military field is undergoing profound changes, and the trend of intelligent and unmanned combat is obvious. Countries around the world are accelerating the research and development of unmanned equipment, intending to seize the commanding heights of military competition. With the large-scale application of drones on the battlefield, some experts pointed out that drones will replace manned aircraft in the future, and the era of drones leading war has arrived. From the current perspective, although drones have certain combat advantages, there is still a long way to go to completely replace manned aircraft, especially in complex electromagnetic environments, where manned aircraft still have advantages.

  Driven by innovative technology, drones have good development prospects. So, what are the advantages of drones in the modern battlefield? Will it take the lead in the future and completely replace manned and machine combat? Please see the interpretation of this issue.

  The battlefield gives birth to new combat forces, and the military application advantages of drones are obvious

  The development of drones has gone through a long period of technological evolution and practical testing.

  In 1917, two American scientists invented an automatic gyro stabilizer that can make aircraft fly stably. The U.S. Navy quickly applied this technical achievement to the N-9 trainer aircraft, kicking off the development of the drone. Subsequently, British scientific researchers successfully overcome the technical problem of "unable to fly back to the takeoff point", making it more practical.

  In the late stage of World War II, drones made their first appearance on the battlefield. At that time, in order to alleviate the problem of pilot shortage, a German engineer integrated navigation systems, gyroscopes, magnetic compass and other equipment into the aircraft, designed the "Avenger One" drone and put it into the battlefield, demonstrating the combat potential of the drone.

  Countries around the world have increased research on drones, but the results have been minimal. Due to the level of radio technology, drones are mainly used as "disposable consumables" and serve as target machines.

  During the Cold War, computer technology developed rapidly, and technological innovations such as microelectronics and communications injected strong impetus into the development of drones. Drones quickly emerged on the battlefield. During the Vietnam War, the United States dispatched more than 3,000 Fire Bee drones to perform air reconnaissance missions. During the Gulf War, the US military used drones to simulate bomber signals, luring all Iraqi air defense positions to be exposed in just two days and destroy them.

  The local armed conflicts that are currently occurring in the world further show that drones are "embedded" into the battlefield with unprecedented breadth and depth. This is a new practice for military drones. Unlike the past model where drones were only used for reconnaissance or attack, it is characterized by integration into system operations and demonstrates better combat effectiveness. This new combat mode is closely related to the two advantages of drones.

  On the one hand, drones can effectively reduce pilot casualties. As we all know, pilot selection standards are high and training cycles are long. Once large-scale casualties are encountered, it is difficult to get quick supplements. This means that under wartime conditions, the strength of a country's air force depends first on the speed of the pilot's replenishment, and secondly the production capacity of the fighter itself.

  Drone operators do not need to be in the center of the battlefield. They can achieve remote control of drones through radio, completing various combat tasks that are highly dangerous, complex in the environment and difficult for personnel to bear. Therefore, in order to reduce battlefield casualties and maintain vital combat capabilities, it is particularly important to develop drones.

  On the other hand, the development and use of drones are relatively low. Manufacturer design needs to consider various factors such as human-computer interaction, environmental control and lifesaving design, and the design and manufacturing cost is higher. In order to maintain the pilot's flight skills level, inspection and maintenance, spare parts consumption, fuel consumption, and strengthening the life of the body structure in daily training are also very expensive.

  Compared with manned aircraft that cost tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of dollars, drones are generally cheaper. Currently, the high-end version of the Turkish TB-2 drone, which is popular in the world's military trade market, is only priced at 5 million US dollars.

  Drones are not omnipotent, and they are more efficient in cooperating with manned aircraft.

  Entering the new century, intelligent and information technology have given drones more development opportunities, and are favored by armies of various countries due to their advantages of zero casualties, non-contact, and long-range combat on the battlefield. "The war model has fundamentally changed" "The era of drones leading the war has arrived"... many such views are endless.

  But judging from the battlefield performance, drones are not omnipotent. In 2011, Iran successfully captured a US RQ-170 Sentinel drone through electronic warfare. Compared with conventional drones, the RQ-170 "Sentinel" drone adopts aerodynamic layout design without tail wings, which has certain stealth performance and is difficult to detect and capture. Even so, this drone still did not escape the "trap" of electromagnetic interference settings, exposing the performance defects of the drone's severe reliance on radio communication technology and satellite navigation technology.

  At present, when countries around the world plan to deploy air combat forces, they prefer to adopt the joint development model of "manned aircraft + drone". While developing advanced manned aircraft and cultivating new fighter pilots, they select retired pilots to enter the drone combat team and maintain air combat capabilities.

  At present, there is still a certain gap between drones and drones compared to manned aircraft.

  First, information processing deviations. Most modern drone combat styles use human-in-loop control mode. The drone's flight height depends on the operator to output instructions based on the back-pass image. With the current technological level, there is still a big gap between cameras' ability to restore the appearance of the battlefield and computers' ability to process battlefield information than manned machines. The modern battlefield environment is complex and changeable, and problems such as lag in information transmission and deviation in situation handling will have a great impact on the efficiency of execution of tasks.

  Second, performance needs to be improved. In terms of flight speed, maneuverability, bomb load capacity, etc., drones generally lag behind manned aircraft. Taking the US X-47B drone as an example, its cruising speed is Mach 0.9, which is a significant gap compared to the F-35 fighter. In terms of maneuverability, due to the communication delay of remote control and limited aerodynamic design, it is difficult for drones to complete difficult tactical actions, while manned aircraft pilots can rely on real-time situational awareness for precise operations. In terms of ammunition load capacity, drones need to reserve some structural weight for installation of communication equipment, etc. Taking the "Death" drone as an example, the maximum bomb load is 1.36 tons, while the B-1B strategic bomber that is about to retire can reach 60 tons.

  Third, the functions are not yet complete. At present, drones have the capabilities of reconnaissance, early warning, air-to-ground strikes and other missions, and some drones have the functions of detecting and attacking. However, in the field of air combat, the application of drones is relatively limited and is still in its infancy. It cannot replace the role of manned aircraft in air combat. The current mainstream development of drones is still mainly small and medium-sized. Due to its small size, drones do not have strategic transportation capabilities. In addition, due to the limitation of energy supply, the power of the active phased array radar carried by the drone is much smaller than that of the manned aircraft, and the electronic countermeasures are relatively weak.

  The performance gap determines that drones are not omnipotent in the battlefield, and it is even more difficult to completely replace manned aircraft in performing all flight missions. The potential of cooperative combat between manned and drones cannot be ignored, and it can often achieve the effect of "1+1>2" on the battlefield.

  Development injects new momentum, but it needs to be tested in practice

  In recent years, drones have frequently appeared in some local armed conflicts and have become a key factor in determining the outcome. Countries around the world have begun to pay attention to the development of anti-drone technology and improve anti-drone combat capabilities.

  At present, there are three main types of anti-drone technologies - using weapons to directly intercept, destroy or capture the "hard destroy" of drones; blocking the communication and navigation systems of drones by interfering with and forcing them to land or deviate from the route; using optical, electronic, network information and other technical means to disguise one's own targets, thereby reducing the "clever deception" of drone reconnaissance and strike effects.

  The "hard destroy" in anti-drone technology must be discovered before it can be carried out. To this end, drones have begun to use flying wing aerodynamic layouts, special materials, etc. to have stealth performance. The American X-47B, French "neuron" and British "Thor" drones are all designed with stealth materials. In recent years, plasma stealth technology has provided new solutions for drone stealth, which has absorbed radar waves through the ionized gas layer, allowing drones to have more aerodynamic layout options and improve flight performance.

  In addition, in view of the high maintenance cost of air defense systems, some military experts have proposed a new model of "swarm combat", which uses a large number of low-cost drones to form a cluster to carry out saturated attacks or coordinated reconnaissance and other combat tasks on targets. This combat style has the advantages of numerous numbers, scattered configurations, flexible and versatile. When performing tasks, only a small number of drones are usually intercepted and shot down by the air defense system, which greatly improves the efficiency of completing tasks.

  Compared with "hard destroy", "soft strike" has more advantages. The defense party only needs to interfere with satellite navigation, radio frequency communication and other signals in a certain area, which can cause drones in the area to lose their mission ability. The UK has developed an anti-UAV defense system that can interfere with drones receiving global positioning system signals and cut off the communication link between the drone and the control platform.

  The changes in the "shield" drive the upgrade of the "spear". Scientific researchers have changed their thinking and transmitted feedback videos and control signals in real time through optical fibers, with higher transmission efficiency and stronger stability. In addition, fiber optic drones have excellent all-weather combat capabilities and can maintain stable performance even in complex meteorological environments such as rain and fog. The Russian "Pirate-10" and "Pirate-13" drones both use new communication systems, and support both wireless and optical transmission modes.

  Supported by technologies such as optical, electronics, and network information, more and more countries have begun to adopt anti-drone technology "cleverly deception". The Russian military's "Rose" electronic warfare system can automatically identify the remote control signals of enemy drones within a radius of about 10 kilometers, encode and imitate, and transmit a large number of fake signals, causing enemy drones to deviate from their course or land in accordance with fake instructions. To this end, researchers equipped the drone with infrared, synthetic aperture radar and other devices, combined with AI algorithms to identify optical camouflage targets, and at the same time, quantum encryption or dynamic frequency hopping technology is used to change the communication frequency band and encryption protocol in real time to block the enemy's interference or deception of control signals.

  The competition between "spear" and "shield" has injected new impetus into the development of drones. It can be foreseen that with the rapid development of military technology, the degree of intelligence and independence of unmanned technology will continue to increase, and the advantages of unmanned combat will become more obvious. History has repeatedly proved that no weapons are invincible, and they need to be supported by the system to fully exert combat effectiveness. In the long river of war where the waves wash away the sand, how drones will evolve and develop needs to be tested in actual combat and given answers in practice.

[Editor in charge: Gao Qiang]