As countless workers who yearn for freedom look up on the air ticket prices during the May Day holiday, the "price dive" they are looking forward to is becoming more and more out of reach.

01

Wait a little longer and then cut the price?

As the May Day holiday approaches, air ticket prices are like a large-scale psychological game, and the migrant workers who are eager to heal physically and mentally exhausted from afar have become the most devout gamblers in the game.

They are very careful in their calculations and hope that air ticket prices will plummet before May Day, but they often fall into the vicious circle of getting more and more expensive, and are repeatedly defeated in this tug-of-war with airlines and big data algorithms.

Some people read it before going to bed every night, silently saying, "It will always drop tomorrow." But the next day, when they opened their eyes, the ticket price rose again. That feeling is like a hunter squatting on his prey, but the prey is running farther and farther under your nose.

Some people are sure that "it will definitely drop before May Day!" So when they saw that the ticket price of a certain route is 500+, they chose to hold on and think, "Wait a little longer, it will be even lower." As a result, what we waited for was not a dive, but a jump.

Some people watched the air ticket price rise from 1500 to 1900, but they were still hesitant and hesitant.

Some people looked at the price of 780 and felt that there was still a possibility of plunging, but the price rose to 1,500.

The most heartbreaking thing is that the air tickets finally dropped and hesitated not to buy them, but the air ticket prices rose again. For example, this person saw that the air ticket dropped by 200 the day before, and then the next morning, and the original price was restored.

Some migrant workers who were unwilling to sit and wait for death also played Internet metaphysics. They released a "reverse taming algorithm" strategy on social platforms: first write more than a dozen times "Air tickets are too expensive, I won't go", then show loyalty to the airline, and finally emphasize that they "watch the air tickets from a certain place to a certain place every day."

This operation is like some mysterious ritual, trying to make the system soft-hearted and give a low price.

Unfortunately, the algorithm may not be able to take this set. So some people complained: as long as you don’t buy, you won’t lower the price, and you will immediately lower the price if you buy it.

Most of the lucky ones who really buy cheap air tickets are because they choose to travel at a staggered peak.

Data shows that domestic air ticket prices are expected to continue to rise from April 28, reaching peaks on the day before the holiday (April 30) and the last day (May 5), while on May 3, there will be a significant price decline, cleverly staggering the holiday demand of workers.

Taking Beijing direct flights to Sanya as an example, the lowest air tickets from April 29 to May 1 were more than 1,000 yuan, but by May 3, it dropped sharply to 587 yuan.

This cleverly staggers the holiday needs of workers, disappointing netizens who were originally looking forward to "picking up bargains" before the holiday.

02

Low-priced air tickets on holidays may become a thing of the past

Why are the prices of air tickets on May Day this year so strong? Behind this is the bitter tears of the airline.

Looking at the airline's financial report, a set of figures is particularly eye-catching: Air China can only make 50 cents and 3 cents for every passenger transported by a kilometer, and China Southern Airlines is not much better, with only 48 cents.

The data from the China Air Association is even more heartbreaking. Last year, people who took the plane hit a new high, but the fares were getting more and more affordable - the average economy class ticket price fell by 10%, and the profit per kilometer shrank by 12.5%. It's like opening a restaurant. Although the seats are packed every day, the consumption per table is getting lower and lower. How can you not be in a hurry to get angry?

Worse, airlines are still struggling in the quagmire of losses. China Southern Airlines lost nearly 1.7 billion yuan; even the stable Air China suffered a loss of more than 200 million yuan.

Performance of Air China and China Southern Airlines in 2024

In order to stop the bleeding, airlines have racked their brains - China Southern Airlines has not only tightened its third-party sales channels, but also replaced the aircraft seats on some routes with "ultra-thin models", and passengers complained about the feeling of riding a green train.

Affected by intensified market competition and cost pressure, airlines are more cautious in pricing. They no longer blindly pursue high attendance rates, but pay more attention to maximizing profits.

In the past, some popular tourist routes may have low-priced tickets of 20% or 30% off a week before departure, but now this situation is getting less and less. Airlines use big data analysis and other means to fine-tune pricing for different passenger groups at different times and in different passenger groups, making the prices more in line with market demand and profit targets, making it difficult to find ultra-low-priced air tickets for the expiration.

The money that airlines usually lose is to recover from holidays. During holidays, the demand for visiting relatives, traveling, and returning home comes like a flood. The five-day holiday this year's May Day adjustment has caused the workers who are so tired that they are dispatched. When millions of people are staring at limited flight seats, air tickets have become a shortage of goods.

Especially for popular tourist cities, such as Chengdu, Sanya, and Xiamen, economy class often shows that "only a small number of seats are left" half a month in advance, and air ticket prices naturally rise at this time.

The result of this supply and demand game is conceivable - the ticket price is like a kite with a broken line, flying higher and higher. Those passengers who expect "waiting longer will be cheaper" may have to stare at the increasingly high ticket prices in the end.

[Editor in charge: Ma Yidong PF171]