Under the impact of Trump's reckless policies, American companies have further expanded the commodity trade deficit to record levels in March in order to avoid tariffs.

This data also basically ensures that the first-quarter GDP data released on Wednesday will be extremely weak.

Preliminary data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that the U.S. commodity trade deficit hit a record high of $162 billion in March this year, a surge of 9.6% from the previous month . Among them, a record surge in consumer goods imports led the growth, while imports of automobiles and capital goods also rose. This data also exceeded all economists' previous expectations.

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(Source: US Census Bureau)

In the past few years, the U.S. commodity trade deficit has remained roughly at the level of US$90 billion to US$100 billion per month. However, with Trump's victory, American companies have entered the stocking mode. Since the commodity trade deficit surged to US$122.1 billion in December last year, it further surged to US$154.6 billion and US$147.8 billion in January and February this year.

Data shows that the United States imported a total of US$342.7 billion worth of goods in March, a further increase of US$16.3 billion from February, while commodity exports increased by US$2.2 billion month-on-month to US$180.8 billion.

March data came just before Trump announced steel and aluminum tariffs and the broader "reciprocal tariffs" in April, showing the final sprint for American merchants to ensure the supply of goods and raw materials.

The unstoppable trade deficit also raises two problems, which are related to the GDP in the first quarter and the subsequent trade data trend.

Since the formula for calculating GDP is "consumption expenditure + investment expenditure + government expenditure + export-import", the sudden widening trade deficit will have a serious negative impact on the GDP data .

The uncertainty at the moment is that it is not clear how much distorted gold has caused to import data, but gold bar imports are indeed one of the reasons for the surge in trade deficit at the beginning of the year. The market will pay attention to the more comprehensive trade data released on May 6, which will include more clues about changes in gold bar imports.

Gold used for investment purposes is not included in the calculation of U.S. GDP, but even if gold is excluded, Atlanta Fed's GDPNow predicted that trade would cause a 3 percentage point drag on first-quarter GDP before Tuesday's trade data was released.

Economists currently generally predict that the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US GDP in the first quarter announced on Wednesday will be only 0.3%-0.4%, which will be the worst level since 2022. If there is a slight mistake, it may even fall directly to a negative value.

As Trump tariffs gradually take effect, U.S. economic data will also usher in more intense distortions.

Data from major U.S. ports show that the number of ships scheduled to arrive in May has dropped sharply. If high tariffs continue, the trade deficit may narrow sharply in the coming months. At the same time, the surge in price and supply shortages will have a serious impact on the U.S. economy and consumer demand.

Tuesday's report also showed that U.S. retail inventory fell 0.1% month-on-month in March, while wholesale inventory rose 0.5% month-on-month. Inventory data are conducive to boosting GDP and may offset the impact of some record trade deficits.